A new pre-assessment model for failure-probability-based-planning by neural network

At present, the prediction of failure probability is based on the operation period for laid pipelines, and the method is complicated and time-consuming. If the failure probability can be predicted in the planning stage, the risk assessment system of gas pipeline will be greatly improved. In this paper, the pre-laying assessment model is established to minimize risk of leakage due to piping layout. Firstly, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) modeling is carried out for urban natural gas pipeline network. According to expert evaluation, 84 failure factors, which can be determined in the planning stage, are selected as the input variables of the training network. Then the FTA model is used to calculate the theoretical failure probability value, and the failure probability prediction model is determined through repeated trial calculation based on BP (Back Propagation Neural Network) and RBF (Radial Basis Function), for obtaining the optimal network parameter combination. Finally, two prediction models are used to calculate the same example. By comparing our pre-assessment model with the theoretical prediction consequences of the fault tree, the results show that the error of RBF prediction model can be close to 3%, which proves the validity and correctness of the method.     

Dynamic risk assessment for underground gas storage facilities based on Bayesian network

Loss of the underground gas storage process can have significant effects, and risk analysis is critical for maintaining the integrity of the underground gas storage process and reducing potential accidents. This paper focuses on the dynamic risk assessment method for the underground gas storage process. First, the underground gas storage process data is combined to create a database, and the fault tree of the underground gas storage facility is built by identifying the risk factors of the underground gas storage facility and mapping them into a Bayesian network. To eliminate the subjectivity in the process of determining the failure probability level of basic events, fuzzy numbers are introduced to determine the prior probability of the Bayesian network. Then, causal and diagnostic reasoning is performed on the Bayesian network to determine the failure level of the underground gas storage facilities. Based on the rate of change of prior and posterior probabilities, sensitivity and impact analysis are combined to determine the significant risk factors and possible failure paths. In addition, the time factor is introduced to build a dynamic Bayesian network to perform dynamic assessment and analysis of underground gas storage facilities. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment method is applied to underground gas storage facilities in depleted oil and gas reservoirs. A dynamic risk evaluation model for underground gas storage facilities is built to simulate and validate the dynamic risk evaluation method based on the Bayesian network. The results show that the proposed method has practical value for improving underground gas storage process safety.     

生态经济学视角下的循环农业：理论、实践与发展方向

农业经历了生态农业、化学农业到生态农业的变迁,生态农业是起点也是终点。发达国家饱尝了发展化学农业的苦果,随后转轨到生态农业的道路上,最后认识到只有发展循环农业才能够做到农业可持续发展。发达国家的循环农业特别强调生态内涵和变废为宝理念,政府的财政投入和科研投入力度很大。相比之下,我国虽然已经开始发展循环农业,但目前还并不普遍,化学农业还占有很大比例。学习吸收发达国家的经验,会让我国尽早走上循环农业的发展道路。循环农业是我国农业的发展方向,为了做到这一点,需要强化农业产业化力度、加大财政补贴力度和科研投入力度。     

基于物联网的水环境监测及分析系统

基于物联网的水环境监测及分析系统集传感器、测控、通信、计算机应用、地理信息系统等技术为一体,实现了"测得准、传得快、说得清、管得好"的总体目标,可为水环境管理、水功能区管理、污染物减排和总量控制提供科学依据。系统可方便接入其他业务系统,实现资源共享,提高环保部门环境监察、管理能力,增强应对突发性污染事故快速反应能力,满足环境监测和环境管理的业务需求。     

用生态文明打造美丽新徐矿

以十八大提出的建设生态文明、美丽中国为指导,提出了美丽徐矿的概念、定义及目标,总结了近年来徐矿生态文明建设初步实践中取得的成效,明确了了建设美丽徐矿必须坚持的八项基本原则,分析了徐矿生态文明建设新实践中存在的八个方面的主要困难和问题,指出了徐矿生态文明建设新实践中必须实施的十个方面的保障措施。     

土地利用规划环境影响评价若干问题探讨

土地利用规划环境影响评价的作用是为了实现土地的规划和环境相互适应、相互协调,为规划决策者提供一定的技术支撑。文章阐述了土地规划环境影响评价重要意义、内容及相关程序,同时也对此提出了针对性的建议,积极推进及完善土地利用规划环境影响评价在现阶段十分必要。     

AERMOD与估算模式在环境影响评价中的应用与比较

采用AERMOD和估算模式两种预测模式对同一生活垃圾填埋场进行了预测。比较两种预测结果可以看出,在污染源、预测范围、运行周期相同的情况下,敏感点处的落地浓度均与排放源强呈正比,与距离呈反比。预测结果同时说明,估算模式是一种保守的预测模式,其预测结果比AERMOD模式大,可作为进一步预测模式的有效补充。     

饮用水源地的水华对人体健康风险评价

饮用水源地的水华现象近年来在世界各地不断爆发,给人类饮水安全造成极大的威胁。本文通过检测微囊藻毒素和三卤甲烷类物质,利用急性暴露安全阈值（浓度）计算模型,计算出了各自的急性暴露安全阅值,并对健康风险进行了评价。     

抽水蓄能电站工程建设中生态环境监理工作实践探讨

水利水电工程建设是促进国家经济发展的重要建设项目之一,抽水蓄能电站工程建设的重要性正在不断凸显。抽水蓄能电站工程的建设与生态环境有着密切的关系,由于抽水蓄能电站工程长期大规模的开发利用破坏了周边生态环境的稳定,加强工程建设中的环境监理工作是将生态破坏程度降到最低的必然要求。以抽水蓄能电站为实例,通过制定科学合理的环境监理方案,将生态环境监理要点落实到施工建设当中,以期最大限度地减少对生态环境的破坏。     

基于GIS的长沙市洪涝灾害风险动态评估

运用GIS技术的空间分析与建模功能构建洪涝灾害风险评估模型,以长沙市地理基础数据、遥感数据、气象水文、社会统计数据为基础,从洪涝灾害的危险性、暴露性、敏感性三个角度出发,对长沙市洪灾风险进行动态评价.结果表明：与1994年相比,2010年长沙市洪灾敏感性有所增加,暴露性上升,洪灾风险增大;从空间分布上看,长沙市区及望城区由于地势平坦,湘江干流贯穿其中,加之经济发达,因而洪灾风险较高;而西部的宁乡县和东部的浏阳市洪灾风险较低;提出了有针对性的防洪措施.该评价结果与实际情况相符,可为洪灾风险管理与决策提供科学依据.